Nigel Farage likes to say that the world of politics is much the same as the City markets in which he cut his teeth as a young trader: in both, timing is everything.
This week he made a speech in Dover — and drew a hasty apology from the BBC after one of its presenters, Geeta Guru-Murthy, accused him of using ‘customary inflammatory language’.
Now, it’s true that Farage has never minced his words. In his speech, he defended using the term ‘invasion’ to describe Channel crossings, saying a ‘trickle’ of illegal migrants had become a ‘flood’.
Not everyone approves of such phrasing — and, yes, Farage has no doubt calculated that there is political capital to be gained from adopting it.
Nevertheless, the truth is that Reform’s honorary president — whom I have known for many years — has studied the political landscape and recognised that now is the time to state a totemic truth that Auntie and its woke presenters have palpably failed to grasp.
Reform UK's honorary president Nigel Farage is aware that immigration could be the main theme of the General Election - something Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer haven't grasped
Mass migration is shaping up to be a main theme — perhaps the main theme — at this election.
Recent polls have consistently shown immigration to be of huge concern to the average voter.
YouGov’s weekly tracker of public opinion, for example, currently shows the economy as the top priority, with 51 per cent of those responding citing it as their main worry. Health comes second at 45 per cent, and immigration third at 40 per cent.
Yet this is a generality.
Polls and focus groups alike show that for one huge group — the millions who took a punt on Brexit in 2016 and who swept Boris Johnson to his thumping majority in 2019 — cheap labour and our borders matter more than anything else.
YouGov has also found that nearly 80 per cent of Tory ‘defectors’ in the North — who are likely to abandon the party after voting blue last time round — cite immigration as their main political concern.
Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives need to face this reality head-on — or they will consign themselves to oblivion on July 4.
It’s time for the Prime Minister to answer some essential questions.
Are we an independent, sovereign nation in control of our own borders? Or a feeble, soft-touch country that cannot regulate who is coming in and out?
Are we to give people what they were promised after the 2016 Brexit vote: namely high-skilled immigration in low, controlled numbers?
Or will we continue to betray voters’ clearly stated wishes by importing almost endless numbers of low-skilled, low-wage workers from abroad?
Net migration may have fallen 10 per cent last year, but it still stood at 685,000 — more than the population of Liverpool, Sheffield or Manchester.
Around half of that total came from just two countries: India and Nigeria.
Many of these people arrived to work in health and social care, and — concerningly — the number coming as dependants of those on long-term work visas was actually higher than the number of main applicants.
Following as it does many previous years of unprecedented mass migration, these extraordinary figures represent a profound shift in the fabric of our society.
Not only did no one vote for it: the electorate has in fact always opposed these policies, while ministers ignore their concerns.
It was Tony Blair, of course, who began this great historical experiment.
In welcoming hundreds of thousands of EU workers into our economy from around the turn of the millennium, many of whom settled here permanently, he might well have increased the size of Britain’s Left-leaning vote.
But, in the process, Labour — supposedly the guardian of the working class — wrote millions of them off.
Sir Keir Starmer yesterday meets Labour supporters and their families at Worcester City Football Club
Well, Rishi Sunak now has one last chance to recapture those voters.
As several commentators have pointed out already during these early days of the election campaign, it is the same ‘Red Wall switchers’ — those former Labour voters who supported Brexit and Boris — who are key to his success or failure at the ballot box.
If Rishi can convince these sceptical men and women that his party is prepared to address their concerns, he could win them round again.
If he fails to, then be in no doubt that Farage and Reform will represent a serious threat.
What precisely should the Prime Minister do?
Farage is going to spend the next five weeks trying to turn the General Election into a national referendum on immigration.
He’ll talk about strengthening the border. About investing in British people so that they can fill the resulting vacancies in the labour market — and be paid properly for it.
Sunak must do the same.
Farage will also seek to steer the national conversation into one that addresses the increasing politicisation of Islam in Britain (already the burgeoning ‘Muslim Vote’ campaign is marshalling members of that creed to vote along certain lines).
Again, Sunak must be bold. Voters can see for themselves the mobs that descend on our city’s streets chanting pro-Hamas slogans week after week.
They remember all too well the Green Party’s new councillor in Leeds, Mothin Ali, saying: ‘We will raise the voice of Palestine! Allahu akbar!’ at the local council elections earlier this month. Millions of ordinary Britons witness such behaviour — and are concerned by it.
Sunak has rightly said that there is ‘no place in our politics’ for Mr Ali’s brazen sectarianism. But he needs to be firmer still.
Most importantly, he needs to state once and for all that our addiction to legal migration is unsustainable. That Britain cannot continue relying on millions of low-paid foreigners to service our economy — and he should, for good measure, name the people and the sectors who benefit from this disgraceful state of affairs.
He should be clear that mass immigration is exacerbating our housing crisis, driving up rents and property prices.
And when it comes to illegal migration, including the politically explosive crisis of the small boats, Sunak knows what to do.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, however, answers questions posed by staff at defence vehicle manufacturer Supacat in Exeter
Our government must leave the international treaties — including the European Convention on Human Rights — which prevent us from choosing who does and who does not come to this country.
We must overturn British laws introduced by Labour — such as the Human Rights Act — which have the same effect.
There is still time for the Tories to fight back.
Not just because doing so is in their political interest — but because it is right for the country.
Our first-past-the-post system makes it difficult for new parties to break ground. Farage and Reform may split the Tory vote — but in many cases the likeliest outcome will be a Labour MP.
Of course Britain needs some skilled legal immigration. But not the historically high and uncontrolled levels of migration that have existed for 20 years or more.
Mr Sunak and the Tories need to admit this — or face a terrible reckoning at the polls.
Matt Goodwin is professor of politics at the University of Kent. You can read more of his analysis at mattgoodwin.org
